National Championship 2026 - Chinese Taipei - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jens Jap

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manson Hsiau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs kou rui yang (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wen Yen Huang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Gugel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs HanYang Chang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Lais Lilu

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Po-Chuan Lin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chen Ze-Wei (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs LIN TING-WEI (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hsiang Cheng Cheng (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

陳正宇

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hsiang Cheng Cheng (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 左承勳 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 吳品賢 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs HanYang Chang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.