National Championship 2026 - Chinese Taipei - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stop-Ting Hsu

40th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs KAO FENG CHI (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yu Zhang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yushen Jan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ying Chieh Liu (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs 左承勳 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Shao Qi Zeng

dropped • 1-3-1

40%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs SU WEI MING (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Albert Ho (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Huang Bo-Yang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.34
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Sun Yu Lin

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jan Ray Teh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justina Hwang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs HO CHI-YUN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs wei shen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Cheng Chun-You

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CHUANG CHIEN-CHENG (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yen-Chang Chen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Huang Hsiang En (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chiang ShenLun (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.