Dash I/O at Calling: Osaka

Dash I/O

45 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bryan Kong

5th • 11-3-0

86%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

6.8

Surp

4.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ugo Henson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jarrod Bowler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Derek Chiu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fabio Albrecht (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mervyn Lin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs kei iikubo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.05
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.34
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.59
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Bun Ar

23rd • 10-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marko Zutic (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vinicius Souza (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shu Hashimoto (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Wallner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Lo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (7.8 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.13
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.34
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.36
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.60
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.35
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.68
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Kazuya Murakami

37th • 9-4-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Changgun Gwak (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andreas Andronicou (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roy Lai (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Liam Trodden (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Samu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bryan Kong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.14
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.21
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.30
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.31
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.51
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Paweł Rozynek

44th • 9-4-0

92%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.2

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs syun suzuki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ingkarat Boonyamanond (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gary Gold (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 岡西達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ma Kang shuo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Denny Koh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Taine Markley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Daniel Correas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.29
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.45
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.67
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.68
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Lucas Ward

62nd • 8-5-0

85%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

6.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Dertoni (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johannes Klaus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kelvin Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yuji Okita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tomasz Buda (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.06
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.14
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.21
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.68
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.23
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.67
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Vlastimil Martinek Jr.

73rd • 7-6-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

6.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paweł Kręcki (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chen Wei Li (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Fay (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tye Soens (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kelvin Tan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Denny Koh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Hariz Hamdan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (7.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.06
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.12
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.21
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.21
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.42
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

spencer horton

dropped • 7-5-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Tran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 左承勳 (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filipe Camacho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Dobler (Unknown)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Tan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yuhung Kao (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jian Wei Tee (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ryota Kitanaka (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs janis bernhards (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hariz Hamdan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.08
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.24
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.57
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.68
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Colin Li

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Sitrick (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs SHINGO OKAZAKI (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Wyce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Chu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs 康平松本 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.36
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

David Yau

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Choi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Chau (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tabitha Boon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Somers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.27
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Esmond Heng

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yusuke Mizuno (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs tim Lin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Wallner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs erwin leung (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs George Rodger (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Ma Kang shuo

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs lim jing hao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Wong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Darryn Ying (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Yoshiki Mizutani

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tore Eskeland (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shogo Takayama (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs brynn nieboer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andre Ryan See (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Clément LOUBIERE (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

王上熏

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeong Ho Shin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Samu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mountain Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.80
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Hung Aaa_Man

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Youngblut (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Handy Wijaya (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs MIN FENG CHIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

RYO YAMADA

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Wong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Somers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Wardan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kiki Labad (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kanaris Bounas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Pathomtarn (Tony) Arsaithamkul (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.11
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.63
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.60
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

SU WEI MING

dropped • 2-6-0

62%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josiah Jr Gosingtian (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Seiichi takahashi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Koruri Takahashi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ken Kuwahara (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Roy Lai (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.50
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

syun suzuki

dropped • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yi Jun Loh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Murray (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jun Sato (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tai-Yuan Chen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.69
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Brodie Spurlock

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gary Lee (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hochun Lai (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kelvin Chen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Roy Lai (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kazuhiro Nagatsuka (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

Paweł Roman

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Takuya Sakuragi (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josiah Jr Gosingtian (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hariz Hamdan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Denny Koh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Liwag (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Satsuki Itagaki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Dale Low

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hariz Hamdan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuto Mori (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs kenta iwasaki (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yu Hang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Goran Lovric

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Akimichi Kaga (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kuan Li (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs SHINGO OKAZAKI (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs kei iikubo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Renzo Schietgat (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Lukasz Bigos

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ania Grudnowska (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs kenta iwasaki (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Satoru Doumoto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gust Boelaert (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tai-Yuan Chen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.98
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.22
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Matthew Ericsson Marquez

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Valentin Varga (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shai Edginton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs タカヒロイヂチ (Unknown)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Satsuki Itagaki

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuichi Oshima (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wojciech Ruciński (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Reyes (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Paweł Roman (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Debney (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kento Goya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Isaiah Malana (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pawel Kosminski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs chikayuki akashi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.00
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Tee Thebeau

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philip Wong (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs haruka sonoda (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Keith Yong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Adam Hove

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tas Hasting (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 大貴浅海 (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yi Moon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elaine Hamontree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yukitaka Inohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Danial Faizsal

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Takuya Yokoi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Takaaki Ueno (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wouter Ouwehand (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Jaturone Chairungsri

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Basil Foo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs YUJIE MAO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.78
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shai Edginton

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs janis bernhards (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuto Mori (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brenna Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Tobias Schmiedeberg

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pathomtarn (Tony) Arsaithamkul (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryo Onishi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Malana (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.88
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Valon Maxhuni

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kent Aldwin Celino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gage Gilliam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chuang Yike (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Yukihiko Ikeda

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hendrix N (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mervyn Lin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Snodgrass (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

和佳倉田

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filipe Camacho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Keith Tan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuji Okita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jakub Tepper (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.31
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.17
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Changgun Gwak

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Legg (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Evandro Campos

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ka chun chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Simon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Ben Ong

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manson Hsiau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Matthew McInnis

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Norio Koide (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Zdeněk Matura

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Long Dao (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Krzysztof Rybczyński

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yutaro Sato (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Nicholas Wong

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Tsoi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Angel Moret

dropped • 2-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 佐藤宗良 (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Sylvain Poirree

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Wojciech Andrusewicz

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs RICARDO DIAZ (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Strachan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Zach Huey

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Keita Arai (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs JohnsonCS Tsang (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.