Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Osaka
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
17th • 10-3-0
15%
Meta
+4.9
Perf
7.0
Surp
7.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Win vs Igor Wesołowski (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Tye Soens (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs Kelvin Tan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs spencer horton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Round 11: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 12: Win vs janis bernhards (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs 岡本 一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
15% (2/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
7.0 total deviation
Difficulty
7.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Huang Hsiang En (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hao Yang Ng (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ben Ong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Win vs 秀太 栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Denny Koh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Round 7: Win vs Kai Young Tan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Kevin Constantineau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Niko Bonnay (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Fabio Albrecht (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kelvin Law (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Masato Umeki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 22:78
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brenna Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Win vs Kidoguchi Hikaru (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marshal Meador (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Oscar Richichi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
17%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gary Gold (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 2: Win vs sotaro takagishi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jack Tang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69
Round 4: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Duy Ta (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kelvin Law (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 優輝 大野 (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Round 3: Win vs Amelia Lee (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs loki chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Takumi Saitou (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 今井 貴大 (Unknown)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs York kwok (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Wallner (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kostoglou (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gideon Law (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.