Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Osaka

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Manuel Wachouschek

5th • 11-3-0

86%

Meta

+3.8

Perf

6.8

Surp

5.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs janis bernhards (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kazuhiro Nagatsuka (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Lopez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Vinicius Souza (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Wayne Tsui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Law Wen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs tim Lin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.07
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.24
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.36
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.38
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.51
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.74
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

William Pistel

12th • 10-3-0

77%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

6.8

Surp

5.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs タカヒロイヂチ (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Legg (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Henry Moore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paweł Kręcki (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kuan Li (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jack Tang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lucas Vaz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Peter Bråss (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.45
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.47
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.98
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.85
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Stefano Meoni

28th • 9-4-0

54%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

6.6

Surp

4.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Takumi Saitou (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Iada Caio (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shai Edginton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Taiki Koike (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs George Rodger (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lucas Ward (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs kei iikubo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.22
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.37
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.51
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.57
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.65
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.63
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.61
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.87
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marshal Meador

51st • 8-5-0

69%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Gale (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kelvin Tan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.14
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.18
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.32
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.39
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.47
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.68
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Denny Koh

54th • 8-5-0

92%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

6.8

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raymond Ocdol (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brendon Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paweł Roman (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Manson Hsiau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Derek Chiu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tiago Rodrigues (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Vlastimil Martinek Jr. (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.16
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.32
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.48
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.57
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.68
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.79
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Tomasz Buda

dropped • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

5.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs ryotaro takashima (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Marengo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elly Bird (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Amber Pennington (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matúš Martinko (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Xavier McLean (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Hariz Hamdan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.28
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.48
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.50
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.58
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Hao-Han Chuang

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sylvain Poirree (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Satsuki Itagaki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs fujiwara yudai (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matt Quigley (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andy Kim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kelvin Law (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

In GwangYeol

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hung Aaa_Man (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yusuke Mizuno (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Goran Lovric (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tas Hasting (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Bun Ar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jian Wei Tee

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Louie Yazon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kuan Li (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Constantineau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Roderick So (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs spencer horton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.48
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Juha-Antti Kurttila

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs JohnsonCS Tsang (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erick Boeder (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs August Rokkanen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs motohiro makigano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs kei iikubo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ma Kang shuo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yuki Tanaka (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Nicolò Valenzano

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kar Hoe See (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Armand Miguel Medina (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jun Jek Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Derk Hua Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tore Eskeland (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs janis bernhards (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.39
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

William Bradshaw

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Odi Winata (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 英明大山 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jesse Harper (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yusuke Maeda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.70
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Genico Boy

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 輝水越 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Drabusenigg (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Murta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ognjen Sipraga (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pang Chan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.11
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.80

Yi Jun Loh

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs syun suzuki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kai Young Tan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Darren Goh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yuji Okita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.71
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

莊子毅

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brendon Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wiktor Woźniak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs sotaro takagishi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Casey Wilson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs 北斗神原 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeong Ho Shin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michel Corvino (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.39
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Shunma Sasaki

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Holland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs To Cheng (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chuang Yike (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chan Lion (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rio I (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.17
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.78
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Kazuhiro Watanabe

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Marengo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daichi Fujita (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs steven coker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Wardan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 康平松本 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Taotao Chu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

loki chan

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louie Yazon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keith Ang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hiromu Urahigashi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Murray (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Wojciech Ruciński (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.47
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Hilmi Halim

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 英鈴木 (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs BILLY CHAN (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.37
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

Dylan Strachan

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs See Atlantis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Malek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Akira Takezaki (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Constantineau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.84
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Gideon Law

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Beni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs ka chun chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Athena Halkia (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Taine Markley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.89
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Ian Choi

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jemima Evans (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Nathan Youngblut

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hung Aaa_Man (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 岡本一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gyuwon Yoon (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs MIN FENG CHIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Derk Hua Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.32
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Worst Lexi SG Alfian Poon

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Wu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kai Yang Yuen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tas Hasting (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luke Harris (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sergio Ruiz Márquez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Hendrix N

dropped • 2-3-1

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Gillingham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Jonah Overholt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Ravi Sharma

dropped • 2-3-1

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs yuuta nojiri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danial Faizsal (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ole Bumann (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Darren Goh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Si-Jie Gao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Jo Yana

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeong Ho Shin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Derk Hua Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wataru Ishimoto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pedro Esaki (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lexie Klasing

dropped • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Teo (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Haywood (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs eiji ito (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Abanto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vasil Boev (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nick Pearce (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Yi Moon

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Takahiro Motooka (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adrien De Haro (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hove (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Armand Miguel Medina (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Yuuki Nada

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Jerald Bea (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pathomtarn (Tony) Arsaithamkul (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yu Hang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hendrix N (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.37
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jakub Nowicki

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryo Onishi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zac Doke (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Manson Hsiau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.63
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Neil Bautista

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jerry Kaonang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nando Nando (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jack Haywood (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Takuya Yokoi

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.21
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.17
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Yusuke Mizuno

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Satoru Doumoto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs yuuta nojiri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

"Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Younghyun Jeong (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elly Bird (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Marie Watson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adrian Quek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs York kwok (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Norio Koide (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pawel Kosminski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Nathan Beni

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gideon Law (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darren Goh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Casey Wilson

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs ka chun chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 周万濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 莊子毅 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brenna Tan

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Akimichi Kaga (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shai Edginton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Cold Cold Lee

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kiki Labad (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Kan Ting JoeB

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gage Gilliam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gaetano Ferrara (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Aaron Francis

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hochun Lai (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Christopher Moyer

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Josh Tran

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs spencer horton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

shota kajiro

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.