Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Osaka — FaB-Results

Dorinthea Ironsong

Dorinthea Ironsong

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

27th • 9-4-0

38%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

6.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Engen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Kano, Dracai of Aether

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michalis Michael (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomohiko Shimanouchi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oscar Richichi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Dash I/O

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs 和佳倉田 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Hayashi Takashi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pawel Kosminski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jesse Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Dash I/O

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Noah Hicks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

38% (5/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.10
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.21
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.59
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.73
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.79
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R10	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.42
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.15
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Narin Leelaporn (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs HyoungJun You (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rio I (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Raphael Rosa (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.45
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.74
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.19
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sylvère Clerempuy (Unknown)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 莊子毅 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Narin Leelaporn (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs TAITO SUZUKI (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs 子謙張 (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 左承勳 (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anya North (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jaime Manzano (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Piotr Slusarski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Wong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Shunma Sasaki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

dropped • 1-6-0

43%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taiki Koike (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chan Lion (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jun Sato (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Isaiah Malana (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs 北斗神原 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.37
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 3-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pawel Kosminski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Abanto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Dash I/O

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Adrian Malana (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.45
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Draw	✗	0.39	-

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 優輝大野 (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

Aurora, Shooting Star

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dominic Chong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Travis Barton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

Dash I/O

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.16
R3	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.