Calling: Osaka - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Odi Winata

dropped • 4-4-0

12%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Satsuki Itagaki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yusuke Maeda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.87
R7	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Christopher Reyes

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Kiss (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lopez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 10:90

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Satsuki Itagaki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Cho Chiu Sit

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roy Lai (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott Sedman (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.