Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Osaka

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Odi Winata

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 14:86

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Satsuki Itagaki (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yusuke Maeda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paweł Rozynek (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Yau (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Reyes

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Kiss (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lopez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Satsuki Itagaki (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cho Chiu Sit

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roy Lai (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott Sedman (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.