Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Calling: Osaka

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chuang Yike

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jakub Grefling (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 37:63

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shunma Sasaki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Valon Maxhuni (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marek Pihut (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.27
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Marlon Ilagan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 今井貴大 (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andy Kim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 37:63

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chia Yong Teck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs PH Chung (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Christian Kiss

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ingkarat Boonyamanond (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 佐藤宗良 (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

eiji ito

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs chen shr jiang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 37:63

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lexie Klasing (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.