Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Calling: Osaka
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Taine Markley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Camden Keener (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Lk Sing (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yifei Wang (Unknown)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Teo (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 和佳 倉田 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Henry Moore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yi Jun Loh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kelvin Chen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 47:53
Round 7: Win vs Melvin Chew (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Round 4: Win vs Lee Ka Yu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Arthur Murta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 20% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-6-0
75%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jun Yet Wong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
Round 4: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs SU WEI MING (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Murray (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 75% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Keith Ang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ognjen Sipraga (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs janis bernhards (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.6
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs chikayuki akashi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Wu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs Chen Wei Li (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dillan Cadorette (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Valon Maxhuni (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt Quigley (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs PH Chung (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mu Kyun Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Loss vs Yukitaka Inohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sze Long Hsu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marek Pihut (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
Round 4: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 47:53
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs タクミ イマイ (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gaetano Ferrara (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Lee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 20:80
Round 3: Loss vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
0.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kidoguchi Hikaru (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tony Mapelli (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.