Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Taine Markley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Camden Keener (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Lk Sing (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yifei Wang (Unknown)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Teo (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 和佳 倉田 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Henry Moore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yi Jun Loh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Round 6: Win vs Kelvin Chen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs Melvin Chew (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
0%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
4.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Round 4: Win vs Lee Ka Yu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Arthur Murta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Rusling (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
Round 8: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
dropped • 2-6-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jun Yet Wong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs SU WEI MING (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Murray (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Keith Ang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ognjen Sipraga (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 73:27
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs janis bernhards (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs chikayuki akashi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jaturone Chairungsri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Wu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61
Round 6: Loss vs Chen Wei Li (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dillan Cadorette (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 77:23
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Valon Maxhuni (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ezequiel Emeraldo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt Quigley (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs PH Chung (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mu Kyun Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Loss vs Yukitaka Inohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sze Long Hsu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marek Pihut (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
Round 4: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs タクミ イマイ (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 51:49
Round 3: Loss vs Gaetano Ferrara (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Lee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
0.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kidoguchi Hikaru (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tony Mapelli (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.