Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026 - Ira, Crimson Haze (SAGE) - FaB-Results

Ira, Crimson Haze

Ira, Crimson Haze

42 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

2nd • 9-2-0

64%

Meta

+3.8

Perf

5.4

Surp

4.8

Diff

Arakni, Solitary Confinement

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christian Fichtner (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Iyslander

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Oldhim

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Steve BRIQUET (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Olympia

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Felix Gössel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kim Scheerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs piero scheriani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Olympia

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Roy Sammour (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Oldhim

35:65

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.63
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.93
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

3rd • 8-2-0

60%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.6

Diff

Enigma

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 79:21

Vynnset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Iyslander

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Elliott Chacksfield (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Kayo

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Piero Carini (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Briar

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Briar

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jake Screen (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Terra

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 48:52

Kayo

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Nikolai Goldmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Oldhim

35:65

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.79
R7	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.74
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.79
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

3rd • 8-2-0

90%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

5.1

Surp

4.6

Diff

Iyslander

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Iyslander

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emil Spangenberg (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Gravy Bones

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Valda Brightaxe

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo, Strong-arm

R6

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bartłomiej Kubas (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Riptide

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tiziano Suran (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Terra

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: 48:52

Iyslander

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.08
R8	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.84
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.87
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nikolai Goldmann

5th • 8-1-0

67%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.4

Diff

Kayo

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Florian Stangassinger (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Briar

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kayo

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Fai

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Salice (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

Terra

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 48:52

Oldhim

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Olympia

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

Iyslander

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.04
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.86
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

piero scheriani

11th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

Briar

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Gravy Bones

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Briar

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Nuu

95:5

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Koller (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

Iyslander

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Iyslander

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Briar

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.05
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.15
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

15th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

Valda Brightaxe

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Kano

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Florian

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tim Greenaway (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Iyslander

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Olympia

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

Briar

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Iyslander

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

18th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs simon haesaerts (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Florian

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Antoine Delaval (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Iyslander

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Oldhim

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Iyslander

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

23rd • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

Iyslander

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jan Kučera (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Kayo

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matěj Běhounek (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Fai

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Salice (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Terra

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: 48:52

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Boris Melnykov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Iyslander

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

36th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

Dromai

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Kano

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Savinien Castel (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Iyslander

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Boris Melnykov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Iyslander

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Briar

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Briar

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jake Screen (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Iyslander

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.15
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

40th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

Vynnset

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Samed Demir (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Dromai

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Leo Reichl (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Iyslander

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tobias Neller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Briar

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kayo

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Briar

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tomor Péter (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kano

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.15
R8	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Daniel Ipakchian

44th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

Valda Brightaxe

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Azalea

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Schwaiger (Azalea) - Expected: 76:24

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Florian

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Greenaway (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Vynnset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Turner (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Briar

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Briar

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Arakni, Solitary Confinement

R8

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.80
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

45th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

Fai

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luca Capoccioni (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

Florian

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Greenaway (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Dromai

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Dalinghaus (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Kayo

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peszlen Zoltán (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Reyes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Iyslander

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Iyslander

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Miguel Angel Segovia Polo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Dominik Popławski

48th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

Briar

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dominik Däther (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Briar

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tomor Péter (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kano

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Lexi

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Simon Salah (Lexi) - Expected: 60:40

Dash

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tino Mille (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

Kayo

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Piero Carini (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Vynnset

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Turner (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Iyslander

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Christoph Lengauer

55th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

Dash

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Olli Saarinen (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

Kano

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Briar

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kano

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Kayo

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Felix Gössel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Fai

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luca Capoccioni (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Oldhim

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Max Kesselbacher (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Piergiorgio Villani

56th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Florian

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Antoine Delaval (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Kayo

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Meinzer (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Kano

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Italo Molina (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Briar

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kayo

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Eduard Cziszter (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fai

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

filippo pirazzoli

62nd • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Schauer (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emanuele D'Angelo (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Kayo

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Kayo

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Dromai

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Kayo

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Eduard Cziszter (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.24
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Stefania Anitei

64th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

Riptide

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs William Rao (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66

Kayo

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emanuele D'Angelo (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Oldhim

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Konstantin Müllner (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Briar

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kayo

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Kano

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kano

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

71st • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

Iyslander

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Florian

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Reis (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Fai

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vaclav Muller (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

Kano

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Kano

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Briar

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Niklas Jansson (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Scurv, Stowaway

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michal Řezníček (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dromai

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.98
R7	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.27

Laurens Van der Beek

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

Florian

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Artur Dziadosz (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Dash

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luca Scherner (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

Briar

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Roy Sammour (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.84
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

simon haesaerts

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

Dromai

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Ferber (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Florian

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Artur Dziadosz (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Iyslander

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lewis Day (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Kayo

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Dash

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Borja Apellaniz Aparicio (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

Kayo, Strong-arm

R7

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bartłomiej Kubas (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.59
R7	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

Iyslander

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Dromai

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Mazzega (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Kayo

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Iyslander

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs René Schep (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Kano

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Florian

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Victor Reis (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Dührkop

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

Kayo

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Briar

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Dromai

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Mazzega (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Fai

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

Florian

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Antoine Delaval (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Briar

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Oldhim

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Max Kesselbacher (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

Dorinthea

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrycjusz Janas (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fai

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kamil Krasnodębski (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

Kano

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrián Marín (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Iyslander

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Iyslander

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mehdy Draoui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Reyes

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

Florian

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michał Siemiętowski (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kano

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Erik Schroedter (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Kayo

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Makowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.66
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Dromai

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Felix Schniz (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Florian

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michał Siemiętowski (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Briar

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs arthur conot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Valda Brightaxe

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Iyslander

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

Kayo, Strong-arm

R1

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bartłomiej Kubas (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Briar

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Dash

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Dromai

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alessandro Mazzega (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Dromai

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Miguel Angel Segovia Polo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.23
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

August Rokkanen

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eduard Cziszter (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Valda Brightaxe

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Florian

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mark Zussev (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Boris Melnykov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dromai

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Leo Reichl (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

Valda Brightaxe

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Briar

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Briar

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Terra

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

Fai

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

Iyslander

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Arakni, Solitary Confinement

R3

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Fai

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luca Capoccioni (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Peter Markovič

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

Briar

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kano

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Kayo

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Kano

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

Briar

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Dash

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

Fai

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luca Capoccioni (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Iyslander

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

Iyslander

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Gravy Bones

R2

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Martin Kristoffersson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alfie Thomasson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pawel Wojewodzic (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Iyslander

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lewis Day (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Kayo

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matěj Běhounek (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Naomi Evelyn Hasalová

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

Briar

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mantas Ptakauskas (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Bravo, Flattering Showman

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Iyslander

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Viliam Kubik (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

Fai

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vigneo Guzman (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kayo

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Sebastiano Zagatti

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Fai

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fai

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Pawel Wojewodzic

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

Ira, Crimson Haze

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Iyslander

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Vynnset

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Iyslander

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Paweł Sosnowski

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Briar

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Kayo

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Dash

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Moser (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Srdja Stetic-Kozic

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Kayo

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matěj Běhounek (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.