Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026 - Iyslander (SAGE)

Iyslander

26 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jack Rhys-Burgess

5th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lewis Day (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kamil Krasnodębski (Fai) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tomor Péter (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mehdy Draoui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joscha Amann (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Roy Sammour (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.57
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Raffaele Verdiani

5th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs arthur conot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Makowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joscha Amann

14th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Mazzega (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Boris Melnykov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bartłomiej Kubas (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Roman Legíň (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mehdy Draoui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Francesco Giorgio

29th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Finn Kleine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kalle Kivilahti (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rainhold Röhlen (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Borja Apellaniz Aparicio (Dash) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen

38th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Italo Molina (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Fai) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Folch (Fai) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.94
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.32
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Thomas Preyer

39th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daja Todesco (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mehdy Draoui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Max Kesselbacher (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs piero scheriani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Adam Makowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.48
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Mads Kjølby Larsen

47th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tomor Péter (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

54th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Emad Kashy (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Peszlen Zoltán (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lorenzo Salice (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Bartłomiej Kubas (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Szabolcs Egri

58th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Folch (Fai) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Boris Melnykov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Artur Dziadosz (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tobias Neller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.25
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Andrei Joghiu

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pawel Wojewodzic (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rokas Pocius (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs piero scheriani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Daniel Papež

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Okruhlica (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Dalinghaus (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Ferber (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tymoteusz Kliś (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Steve BRIQUET (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Elliott Chacksfield

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Felix Schniz (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robert Szura (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tim Greenaway (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Peszlen Zoltán (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.28
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Rainhold Röhlen

dropped • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matěj Běhounek (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Savinien Castel (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.98
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Elias David Leiva Peters

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christoph Munzig (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bartłomiej Kubas (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs William Rao (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.19
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Emil Spangenberg

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs João Mariz (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Roy Sammour (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Salice (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ralph Schlauri

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Roy Sammour (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Felix Ebert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luca Scherner (Dash) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.91
R4	Silver Age	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

René Schep

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Dynowski (Unknown)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bidinger Mikael (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rokas Pocius (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.69
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-

Martin Okruhlica

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Salice (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jan Kučera (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Konrad Weiss

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Fai) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Emil Spangenberg (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dominik Šupa

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Haidl (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kamil Krasnodębski (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Dash) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jan Kučera

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Ferber (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Okruhlica (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Lewis Day

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Felix Schniz (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs simon haesaerts (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Xavier Mudry

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Meinzer (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michal Faldyna (Rhinar) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.43
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Viliam Kubik

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Naomi Evelyn Hasalová (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tyler Atkin

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jake Screen (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mikael Vedemar (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Ville Schalin

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tymoteusz Kliś (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.