Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luis Toeffels

1st • 10-1-0

73%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Konstantin Müllner (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Felix Gössel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kim Scheerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lorenzo Salice (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.27
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.18
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.96
R10	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.54
R11	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Steve BRIQUET

24th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Florian) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.29
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.46
R8	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.28

Max Kesselbacher

53rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset) - Expected: 62:38

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 18:82

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Rao (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Peszlen Zoltán (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michal Řezníček (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Konstantin Müllner

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Fichtner (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.