Oldhim at Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026
Oldhim
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 10-1-0
91%
Meta
+3.6
Perf
4.9
Surp
4.4
Diff
50:50
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Win vs Konstantin Müllner (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Win vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R3 SAGE
Round 3: Win vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Win vs Felix Gössel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Win vs Kim Scheerer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34
Round 6: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
80:20
R7 SAGE
Round 7: Win vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 81:19
50:50
R8 SAGE
Round 8: Win vs Lorenzo Salice (Fai) - Expected: 51:49
Round 9: Win vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
65:35
R10 SAGE
Round 10: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R11 SAGE
Round 11: Win vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
91% (10/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Flattering Showman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Briar | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Iyslander | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 65% | Win |
24th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.5
Diff
R1
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
75:25
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 73:27
Round 3: Loss vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs Simone Paterniti (Florian) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory
50:50
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Loss vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 51:49
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
70:30
R7 SAGE
Round 7: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30
80:20
R8 SAGE
Round 8: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar) - Expected: 81:19
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian | 15% | Win |
| R5 | Fai | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Briar | 80% | Win |
53rd • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset) - Expected: 60:40
10:90
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 8:92
100:0
R3 SAGE
Round 3: Win vs William Rao (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0
35:65
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 34:66
Round 5: Loss vs Peszlen Zoltán (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
R6
R6 SAGE
Round 6: Win vs Michal Řezníček (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
65:35
R7 SAGE
Round 7: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R8 SAGE
Round 8: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Olympia | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide | 100% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Scurv, Stowaway | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 65% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Win vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Fai) - Expected: 51:49
Round 3: Loss vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
R4
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Loss vs Christian Fichtner (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Solitary Confinement | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.