Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luca Capoccioni

22nd • 6-2-0

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.5

Surp

5.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Makowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Max Moser (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daja Todesco (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Filippo Barbani (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.89
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.16
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.50

Lorenzo Salice

37th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emil Spangenberg (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tiziano Suran (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Andreas Guetz

46th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Schwaiger (Azalea) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Niklas Jansson (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Steve BRIQUET (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.71
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.33

Beslan Tatayev

52nd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Davide Giacca (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.27
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.31
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

Daniel Folch

60th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Niklas Jansson (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Piero Carini (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emad Kashy (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mantas Ptakauskas (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.89
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Kamil Krasnodębski

70th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dominik Šupa (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matěj Běhounek (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tim Greenaway (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.37
R8	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Vaclav Muller

78th • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Markus Reichhart (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Niklas Jansson (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Felix Schniz (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs William Rao (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dennis Ferber (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.93
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Bidinger Mikael

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs René Schep (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tiziano Suran (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Artur Dziadosz (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Albert Schütt

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Miguel Angel Segovia Polo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mantas Ptakauskas (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.75
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Loay Achmasiewicz

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luzian Kolb (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Borja Apellaniz Aparicio (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jake Screen (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.75
R3	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Dmitri Sidorenko

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tiziano Suran (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Konstantin Müllner (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Dührkop (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Mikael Vedemar

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Atkin (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Olli Saarinen (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mantas Ptakauskas (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Finn Baird

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert Szura (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Kacper Kubas

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul Fuchs (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Simone Quartieri

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Niklas Jansson (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eduard Cziszter (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Vigneo Guzman

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.