Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026 - Kano (SAGE)

Kano

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sammy Weckx

28th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Haidl (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tymoteusz Kliś (Riptide) - Expected: 92:8

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matěj Běhounek (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Emil Spangenberg (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs arthur conot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.06
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.00
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41

Tim McCarthy

49th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adrián Marín (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Antoine Delaval (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mantas Ptakauskas (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.09
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.81
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41

Ben Emmanuel

75th • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Screen (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Haidl (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Davide Giacca (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kamil Krasnodębski (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.88
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.16
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Sebastian Spicher

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs João Mariz (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Terra	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Gary White

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Dalinghaus (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christoph Munzig (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Elias David Leiva Peters (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.94
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Savinien Castel

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mehdy Draoui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dominik Popławski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Markovič (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rainhold Röhlen (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.84
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.13
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Stefan Bonk

dropped • 0-5-0

40%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kamil Krasnodębski (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Markovič (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emanuele D'Angelo (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michal Řezníček (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Max Moser (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-

Italo Molina

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Miguel Angel Segovia Polo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Emad Kashy

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Iyslander) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Erik Schroedter

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Borja Apellaniz Aparicio (Dash) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tino Mille (Dash) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Samuel Mudry

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vaclav Muller (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Leo Reichl (Dromai) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.