Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

23 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Frederik Pedersen

12th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Victor Reis (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rainhold Röhlen (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Goran Lovric (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rokas Pocius (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.19
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Matthew Duggan

17th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tino Mille (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tymoteusz Kliś (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Olli Saarinen (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Victor Reis (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Jan Hendrik Wewering

27th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Leo Reichl (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paweł Sosnowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Reyes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Eduard Cziszter

50th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tiziano Suran (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs João Mariz (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.02
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Peszlen Zoltán

51st • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Szura (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Thourgood (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Makowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Max Kesselbacher (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Elliott Chacksfield (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matěj Běhounek (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.08
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matěj Běhounek

63rd • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Srdja Stetic-Kozic (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rainhold Röhlen (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kamil Krasnodębski (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christian Fichtner (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Peszlen Zoltán (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marcos Vassão

72nd • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tiziano Suran (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Markovič (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Dalinghaus (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Turner (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Miguel Angel Segovia Polo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.15
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christoph Munzig

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Elias David Leiva Peters (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tim Moser (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Steve BRIQUET (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R6	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Filippo Barbani

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Goran Lovric (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 23:77

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luca Capoccioni (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.87
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Francesco D'Amendola

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vigneo Guzman (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Leo Reichl (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rokas Pocius (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs arthur conot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Maximilian Reichl

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrik Koller (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.06
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Piero Carini

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Petter Olsson (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Folch (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Leo Reichl (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Isaac Fogg

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rokas Pocius (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs simon haesaerts (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Maciej Szawica

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Emanuele D'Angelo (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Markus Reichhart

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rainhold Röhlen (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vaclav Muller (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Simon Salah (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Turner (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Mert Gezgin

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tiago Victor Goncalves (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Reis (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Christian Meinzer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luca Scherner (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emanuele D'Angelo

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Florian Stangassinger

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tino Mille (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andreas Jacobsen (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brodie Spurlock

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luzian Kolb (Nuu) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.28

Maciej Graszek

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Erik Schroedter (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs René Schep (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.35
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Alexander Schauer

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tiago Victor Goncalves

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.