Vynnset at Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026

Vynnset

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brandon Turner

42nd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Davide Giacca (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Ipakchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dominik Popławski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Rokas Pocius (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.60
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.67
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jennifer Buchanan

61st • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Felix Ebert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Haidl (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tomor Péter (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Papež (Iyslander) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jonas Stoberock

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bidinger Mikael (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kacper Kubas (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tomor Péter (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.72
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.91
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Stefan Dyjak

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Max Kesselbacher (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christoph Munzig (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Goran Lovric

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Davide Giacca (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Samed Demir

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs arthur conot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.