Briar at Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026

Briar

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Roman Legíň

9th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Elliott Chacksfield (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kacper Kubas (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Javier Querol (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.10
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Lars Seebacher

13th • 6-2-0

25%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Peter Markovič (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Schwaiger (Azalea) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rainhold Röhlen (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joscha Amann (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.10
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.29
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Jonny Chapman

19th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jake Screen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adrien Krifa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Ipakchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19

Alexander Reichhart

25th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Turner (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kamil Krasnodębski (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Elliott Chacksfield (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs David Chirulescu (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.10
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.29
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Corentin Guillemot

26th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Viliam Kubik (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Thourgood (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bartłomiej Kubas (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Peszlen Zoltán (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Filippo Barbani (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kalle Kivilahti (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

David Chirulescu

30th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paweł Sosnowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tobias Neller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tiziano Suran (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Olympia) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mehdy Draoui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Javier Querol

32nd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mark Zussev (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs piero scheriani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Melvin Lemke-Detlefsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.10
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Kalle Kivilahti

34th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs arthur conot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Ipakchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Terra	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lukasz Bigos

35th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Moser (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs piero scheriani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Steve BRIQUET (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.11
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Jean Luka Zorko

41st • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michał Siemiętowski (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Albert Schütt (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Luca Capoccioni (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.29
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Tomor Péter

57th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michał Sucharski (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dominik Popławski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs João Mariz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs arthur conot (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Andreas Jacobsen

68th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Artur Dziadosz (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Florian Stangassinger (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jan Kučera (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Schwaiger (Azalea) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.24
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Mantas Ptakauskas

69th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Naomi Evelyn Hasalová (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Albert Schütt (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Antoine Delaval (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Folch (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Niklas Jansson

80th • 2-6-0

88%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Simone Quartieri (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andreas Guetz (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vaclav Muller (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michal Řezníček (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Barry Buchanan (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jake Screen

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Atkin (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Borja Apellaniz Aparicio (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mehdy Draoui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

João Mariz

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emil Spangenberg (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrycjusz Janas (Dorinthea) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tino Mille (Dash) - Expected: 86:14

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tomor Péter (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Patrik Koller (Nuu) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Eduard Cziszter (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Enes Findik

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs piero scheriani (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dominik Däther (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tymoteusz Kliś (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Victor Reis (Florian) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.84
R4	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jimmy Nguyen

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nikolai Goldmann (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Darling (Dromai) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Antonia Reichl (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Italo Molina (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Petter Olsson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Piero Carini (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luca Scherner (Dash) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Dash	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-

Dominik Däther

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Enes Findik (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michał Biernacki

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.