Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026 - Bravo, Flattering Showman (SAGE)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Luis Saenz Soria

33rd • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dominik Šupa (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Rao (Riptide) - Expected: 91:9

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Ipakchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Luca Capoccioni (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Raffaele Verdiani (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.03
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Miguel Angel Segovia Polo

65th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Albert Schütt (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Italo Molina (Kano) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Ferber (Dromai) - Expected: 87:13

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Antonia Reichl (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Makowski (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.10
R5	Silver Age	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Felix Gössel

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tiago Victor Goncalves (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Piero Carini (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Oldhim) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Finn Labe (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christoph Lengauer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Rene Gropp

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Corentin Guillemot (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: 28:72

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Thourgood (Florian) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.22
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adrián Marín

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Boris Melnykov (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 28:72

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michał Siemiętowski (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.29
R3	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Miw Valle

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Salice (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Naomi Evelyn Hasalová (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sergio Bravo Aranda

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Kano) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Miguel Angel Segovia Polo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Schwaiger (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.