Valda Brightaxe at Sunday Showdown: Prague 2026

Valda Brightaxe

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alan Williams

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Viet Pham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samed Demir (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Roy Sammour (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tobias Neller (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tim Greenaway (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Max Moser

dropped • 1-3-1

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luca Capoccioni (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Felix Schniz (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stefan Bonk (Kano) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Draw	✓	0.76	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.91

Martynas Norbutas

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Ipakchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Fichtner (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs August Rokkanen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jacob Trossing

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Turner (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Sam Cornelis

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Graszek (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Paul Fuchs

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kacper Kubas (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.