Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Toulouse 2026

Arakni, Marionette

36 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emad Kashy

11th • 9-3-0

83%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marijn Lybaert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kristaps Štils (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sami Belkhorfi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Towsey (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs CÉDRIC LIGNIER (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Maxime Dumas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.76
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tom Escoffier

13th • 9-3-0

92%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

5.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs kyllian moraine (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ludovic Zgajner (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R10	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Maxime Forest

23rd • 9-3-0

83%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.8

Surp

5.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Axel Edieu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jean-Louis Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sylvain LE ROUX (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Julien Fourn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Bruckert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Antoine Billy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Nicolas Michenaud (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexandros Kossyfidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.06
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.26
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.72
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.07
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.04
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Maxime Dumas

25th • 8-4-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs YOAN RONDINEAU (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Bruckert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matteo Megera (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Maxence Gobert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Koch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.26
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.46
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jimmy Nguyen

26th • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stéphane Russo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kristaps Štils (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Djeniba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lasnier Richard (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Coutellec (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alexandros Kossyfidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Maxime Dumas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.05
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Vincent Mignot

27th • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Quentin Aubel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ewan Dajnak (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Traian Costea (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kristaps Štils (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Frédéric Marigo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.07
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.17
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.82
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Bartosz Dobrowolski

28th • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Loreau (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ludovic Zgajner (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Guillaume Moutardier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Doriann LASSARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Koch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ricardo Manrique (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.07
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.47
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.90
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Tommaso Viscido

46th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre STEINMETZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lasnier Richard (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Loreau (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Antoine Campart (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mathis Reteuna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.07
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.37
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.48
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.84
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Jean-Louis Nguyen

56th • 7-4-1

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mickael ROUSSEL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Franco (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Djeniba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Antoine Billy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Draw vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.33
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.73
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Draw	✓	0.74	-

Bernardo Cardoso

64th • 7-5-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Théo Lamour (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antony Vinas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antoine Le Bras (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Axel Jan Mahamad (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Connor McGrath (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Alves (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Théo MEKIDECHE (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.05
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.47
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Fabrizio Cenacchi

66th • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

5.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs alban dufourt (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Filipe Camacho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ghislain Delance (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tanguy Meignier (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jakub Kulpinski (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ricardo Manrique (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jean-Louis Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jeremy Coutellec (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ulysse Bousquet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.06
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.28
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.24
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.65
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ulysse Bousquet

68th • 6-6-0

58%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

6.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yoan Thiebaud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs João Gomes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs MARC JOSÉ VENTURA (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mathieu LAGUERRE (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Arthur Brunoni (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs mickael assemat (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Traian Costea (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Fabrizio Cenacchi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (6.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R5	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.17
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.63
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Fernando García-casarrubios

71st • 6-6-0

58%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Alves (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Castaingt-Tailleur (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexandros Kossyfidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Antoine Le Bras (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Léo Masson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ludovic Coumes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kristaps Štils (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alexandre STEINMETZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jeremy Coutellec (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (6.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.14
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.75
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.73
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Yoann Moine

dropped • 6-4-0

80%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antony Vinas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre Cocquerez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs William Castaingt-Tailleur (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Charleux (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs George Melissakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.07
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.34
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.62
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christophe Jourdan

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antonin Poubeau (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Barthonnet (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.46
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Hammer

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thibaut BONNEL (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antoine Campart (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yoann Moine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Traian Costea (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Danilo Calcagno (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.16
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.10
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Frédérick Cognard

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Lohéac (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Viktor Nelipovich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Linh Tran (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maxime Claveau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Julia B. (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Corto Bastien (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

José Guimarães

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexandre Cocquerez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Charleux (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jérémie SIFFRE (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ludovic Coumes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Edgar Herrera Ramos (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Lucas Ward

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jorge Cerdá (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christian Franco (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.11
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Samed Demir

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Quentin Palacios (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs FREDERIC MOUTARDIER (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Léo Vigier (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aurélien Cordier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Sherish Chowhari

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Guarober (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Prisse (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.16
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Yorgos Samaras

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Etienne Vanderaspoilden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Guillaume Moutardier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Lohéac (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bidinger Mikael (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Corentin Guillemot (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Arnaud Oglaza (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.80
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.59
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Luce Guidi

dropped • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Axel Jan Mahamad (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Théo MEKIDECHE (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Muntwyler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs MARC JOSÉ VENTURA (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs George Chatzigiannakidis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ludwig Schmidt-Dennig (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.55
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.88
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.57

Kevin Bruckert

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Louis Angilbert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Djeniba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxime Dumas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nico Schleier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Romain Carpentier (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Luong (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.54
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Nathanaël frederic

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Melissakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick GINET (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Filipe Camacho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Leonardo Giuliano (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christophe Jourdan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Paul van Gijssel

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dimitri Trichard (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Koch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Antony Vinas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Gut (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.63
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Mark Henderson

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy ARRESTIER (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julia B. (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Tardif (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Antoine Cordier (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexandre Laloy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Rémi Roux

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antoine Campart (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Chatzigiannakidis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Cocquerez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre MARTINS (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Guillaume Moutardier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.53
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.59
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Lucas Dutailly

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antoine Le Bras (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leonardo Giuliano (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Frédérick Cognard (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ewan Dajnak (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.34
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Thibaut BONNEL

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donovan LEBLANC (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicolas ROUBINET (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eloi Meens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.51
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.37
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Theo Mussy

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julien Coustels (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elliot Bessède (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs therry HOMEDES (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maxime Houdas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ludwig Schmidt-Dennig (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Tom Lorente

dropped • 0-5-0

80%

Meta

-3.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cyril LEROUX (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Rao (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mickael ROUSSEL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Antonin Poubeau

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christophe Jourdan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danilo Calcagno (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Matthew Brown

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Léo Masson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Camille Colin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Noa Loisy

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Damien CHINIARD (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

nicolas levillain

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.