Calling: Toulouse 2026 - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jeremy Guarober

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre MENAGE (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antonin Poubeau (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emmanuel Boissard (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Corto Bastien (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Antoine Campart (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.45
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.46
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.92
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Nico Schleier

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emmanuel Boissard (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 47:53

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Michenaud (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Lorente (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Bruckert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jérôme Cluet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Quentin Aubel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Julien Coustels (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.67
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Sylvain LE ROUX

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adrien Defarge (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florian Escande (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicolas ROUBINET (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.