Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Toulouse 2026

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jeremy Guarober

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre MENAGE (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antonin Poubeau (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emmanuel Boissard (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Corto Bastien (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Antoine Campart (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Nico Schleier

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emmanuel Boissard (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 58:42

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Michenaud (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Lorente (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Bruckert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jérôme Cluet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Quentin Aubel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Julien Coustels (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.68
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Sylvain LE ROUX

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adrien Defarge (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florian Escande (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicolas ROUBINET (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.