Valda, Seismic Impact at Calling: Toulouse 2026

Valda, Seismic Impact

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Towsey

44th • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.2

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Kulpinski (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyson Dumas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bruno Marty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ronan Pasquier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Clément LOUBIERE (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Charles Tardif (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Antoine Le Bras (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Kristaps Štils (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.37
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.66
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

Aleix Córdoba

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick GINET (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Charles Tardif (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs CÉDRIC LIGNIER (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexandre Cocquerez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Charles Tardif

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paolo D’Innocenzo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Victor Lenoble (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Luong (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mark Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Towsey (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Christophe Alves

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Léo Vigier (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick GINET (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs YOAN RONDINEAU (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrycjusz Janas (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan YUSTE (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mathieu Isorce (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Arnaud Mabboux (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

David BERGIA

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ariana Malaga (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julia B. (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Antoine Billy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.70
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R4	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.36
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Manuel Wachouschek

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Bousch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs pierre Maillard (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Döhrer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Axel Jan Mahamad (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexandre Guichenay (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.50

Martynas Norbutas

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luc REINBOLD (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mathieu LAGUERRE (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Bousch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ricardo Manrique (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.52
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.74
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.27

Arnaud Oglaza

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Théo Lamour (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Philippe DURET (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.78
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Corto Bastien

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clément Maillet (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Arthur Brunoni (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Frédérick Cognard (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Emmanuel Boissard

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nico Schleier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arnaud Mabboux (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Philippe Milot (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.19
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Jason Rolfe

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Brunoni (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ludovic Zgajner (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxime Houdas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.61
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Anthony Jeannot

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Castaingt-Tailleur (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs hugo Kieffer (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Cyril LEROUX

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Lorente (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan YUSTE (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Mário Abrantes

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Pereira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Loreau (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

William Rao

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Théo Marmisse (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antoine Muller (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tom Lorente (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

Benjamin Marsat

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs guillaume jauneau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs steve thiebaut (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thibault Taccone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Etienne Vanderaspoilden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Guillaume Ricros

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aurélien Cordier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antoine Cordier (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.