Jarl Vetreiði at Calling: Toulouse 2026
Jarl Vetreiði
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-2-1
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kim Barroso (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Arnaud Oglaza (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 65:35
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 29:71
Round 4: Win vs David Muntwyler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Antoine Talbot (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 75% | Draw |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Moraine (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs José Guimarães (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alexis HAYOIT (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yoann Moine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Léo Baty (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65
Round 2: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Noa Loisy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Win vs François BARAT (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Guillaume ADOUANI (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nuno Amaral (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Gut (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jean Mattio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Castaingt-Tailleur (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alexandre Godon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70
Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.