Calling: Toulouse 2026 - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC) - FaB-Results

Dorinthea Ironsong

Dorinthea Ironsong

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexandre Laloy

15th • 9-2-1

67%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

6.2

Surp

5.5

Diff

Dash I/O

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs therry HOMEDES (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs enzo costa (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

Dash I/O

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

Dash I/O

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Richard Carr (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mark Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Olivier HENRY (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Artur Wysocki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs CÉDRIC LIGNIER (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Doriann LASSARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.81
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R10	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.82
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

39th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.2

Diff

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Dash I/O

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Koza Koza (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Jamart (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 63:37

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Correas (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R9

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ulysse Bousquet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Arakni, Huntsman

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 25:75

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.34
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R9	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.17
R11	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Théo MEKIDECHE

70th • 6-5-1

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 13:87

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Luce Guidi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Puffin, Hightail

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs condamin jean philippe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Frank CLEMENT (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 83:17

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Koch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 13:87

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs João Gomes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.23
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.52
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Arnaud Thenevin

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jules Lefrère (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

Dash I/O

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

Dash I/O

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs FREDERIC MOUTARDIER (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Damien ROUBINET (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Philippe Milot (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.09
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.44
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ghislain Delance (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Antoine Le Bras (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Clémence BOUYSSOU (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Etienne Vanderaspoilden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 83:17

Kassai of the Golden Sand

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs William Castaingt-Tailleur (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.99
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.24
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

Valda, Seismic Impact

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David BERGIA (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Bilhère (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 83:17

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxence Cornut (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Etienne Vanderaspoilden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 83:17

Prism, Awakener of Sol

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alberic LE Vern (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

Puffin, Hightail

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs condamin jean philippe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Corentin Guillemot

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maxence Cornut (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Moraine (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marc Germond (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexandre STEINMETZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs George Chatzigiannakidis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.27

Stéphane Russo

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs william cancy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 83:17

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tam Pham (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Frank CLEMENT (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 83:17

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexandre STEINMETZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.46
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.16
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Valentin Jacqueline

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

Fai, Rising Rebellion

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philippe DURET (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

Dash I/O

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

Pleiades, Superstar

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Dash I/O

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

Kassai of the Golden Sand

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Léo Baty (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.09
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Sergio Tizón Molina

dropped • 2-4-1

43%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

Arakni, Huntsman

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 25:75

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leandre Bleeker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Kassai of the Golden Sand

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Leonardo Giuliano (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs MARC JOSÉ VENTURA (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Jean Mattio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

Fang, Dracai of Blades

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gregory Celot (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clémence BOUYSSOU (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Roufie (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 63:37

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frédéric Marigo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 13:87

Jarl Vetreiði

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Louis Angilbert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Gindri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simone Paterniti (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 36:64

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thibault Taccone (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.