Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Lyon

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

47 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eric Steuer

44th • 8-4-0

42%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

6.0

Surp

4.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vlastimil Martinek Jr. (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robin Meunier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dave Kerr (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joscha Amann (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mario Donoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Simon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ian Zhang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Dario Vegh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Hulys Zimmermann (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.26
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.54
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.87
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.72
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Hulys Zimmermann

61st • 7-5-0

50%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yoann Chaussinand (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Valloo (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs snith nhotprasa (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Freddy Friedrich (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ian Zhang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.15
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.09
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Finlay Freir

75th • 6-6-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chang Li (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicolas Fourchon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Roissac Sylvain (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Recif Guardian (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs José Guimarães (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.03
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.52
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.34
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.20
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.87
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Danilo Calcagno

dropped • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frédéric Marigo (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Knýbel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pedro Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs valentin mackl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.25
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.18
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.14
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Aleix Córdoba

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Gubau Jové (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Geoffrey Donneger (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.50
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Alexander Rosenberger

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Asciano (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mikael GARCIA (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam West (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Altair G. Sánchez

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph White (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas Pauwels (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Bernhardt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Philippe Milot (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs pierre marcueyz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrea Mengucci

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dario Vegh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kai Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aurélien Huc (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.16
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.29
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Clément Bernier

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Szary (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Valloo (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Valentin Lieutard (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Henderson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Rodrigues (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.93
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Daniel Dolejš

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cristian Codes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Francisc Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.56
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.00
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Gaál Benjamin

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexis HAYOIT (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alessandro Erba (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Brakowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stefania Patsou (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.25
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.56
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Jonathan YUSTE

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Antoine Pignoux (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs simon diaz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christophe Donnat (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tim Coates (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Brakowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.22
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.56
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.89
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Josep Giné

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Forte Adrien (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Giannis Karyotakis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ian Zhang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Angelos Maxilaris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.93
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Julius Otte

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sokha BOURNAK (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Romain TRAVERSAZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Nijssen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Maik Wiesen

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Cohen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Angus Sünner (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christian Hauck (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.14
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Oliver Gehrig

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Semelagne (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs alban dufourt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Reuter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Takis Pavlou (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Corentin Guillemot (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Altair G. Sánchez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pietro Giraudo

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Panagiotis Xanthopoulos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Valls Reinecke (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Arthur Brunoni (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Augé (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Andreas Capsalis

dropped • 3-4-0

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Motta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexis HAYOIT (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs nino Zimmermann (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marco Lettieri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Vincent PROUM (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.50
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.75
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.50
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Gergely Kovacs

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yannick Manca (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tristan Boulanger (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.90
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Kevin Brakowski

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Chirulescu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Takis Pavlou (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alessandro Erba (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Isaac Murray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan YUSTE (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexandros Modestou (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.22
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.93
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Kris Mersol

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valentin Jacqueline (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fabio Albrecht (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sylvain LE ROUX (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Panagiotis Xanthopoulos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Romain Garcin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.23
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Maël Cousinier

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Panagiotis Xanthopoulos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luca Muratori (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs FREDERIC MOUTARDIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexandre STEINMETZ (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.22
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.43
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Paul Crame

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Corentin Ruis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs damien herlin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robin Meunier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nicolas Kihl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Maxime Grondin

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philippe Jacob (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alain Dang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Francesco Motta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alessio Boiardi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicolas Pauwels (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.61
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.75
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Simon Reuter

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Stefania Patsou (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Forte Adrien (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aurélien Huc (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Stefan Bernhardt

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Altair G. Sánchez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Remy Geral (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.15
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.13
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Yannick Manca

dropped • 1-5-1

43%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gergely Kovacs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Antonin Poubeau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Clark (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Christopher Dührkop (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Draw	✗	0.30	-

Camille Colin

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dominik Šupa (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Lima (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cedric Bernard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs issane houachem (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.51
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Loay Achmasiewicz

dropped • 2-3-1

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marc Sion (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxime Grondin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Francesco Motta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Semelagne (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gergely Kovacs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Draw	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.87
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Raphaël Caliendo Spera

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Konrad Paziewski (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs André Ferreira (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs snith nhotprasa (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bart Horré (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.26
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Tobias Hartfiel

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gaia Bormida (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Clément Bernier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cedric SCHAACK (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Leonardo Asciano (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ilian Baylon (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

Adam West

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Konrad Paziewski (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Rosenberger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.36
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.27
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Guillaume Ricros

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aurélien Huc (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Denis Müller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charly Bizard (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Romain Lecuyer (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.05
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Valentin Lieutard

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexej Frikel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Coutellec (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noa Loisy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clément Bernier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bota Claudiu (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.86
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

George Chew

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dührkop (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs P.E. Gallais (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.70
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julien Erdreich

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Svetozar Petrushkov (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alessio Boiardi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs steve thiebaut (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Denis Müller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Nick Mamonas

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kai Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francisc Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Recif Guardian (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Alexej Frikel

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valentin Lieutard (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frank CLEMENT (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jose Mestanza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lévi Descombas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Benjamin Van donkelaar

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Dolejš (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Killian HENRY (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Sergio Martínez ibañez

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Laloy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Frédéric Marigo (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Ximun LASTIRI

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Florent Leclercq (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simone Rainaldi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.53
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Francesco D'Amendola

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs simon diaz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Killian Allouard (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Guillaume Ricros (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Mestanza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jakub Grefling

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Dührkop (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robin Meunier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

steve thiebaut

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hadrien Legallet (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cyril LEROUX

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luca Muratori (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matěj Stejskal (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Matthias Verbeeck

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Balint Herendi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lorenzo Cavazzini

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christophe Donnat (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.