Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Calling: Lyon — FaB-Results

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Manuel Wachouschek

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 61:39

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nikos Louganis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Geoffrey Donneger (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 20:80

Nuu, Alluring Desire

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 61:39

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

Dash I/O

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Vlastimil Martinek Jr. (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Nuu, Alluring Desire

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Crame (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antoine Billy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 61:39

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Claudio Paradiso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Romain Werlen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Aurora, Shooting Star

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs José Guimarães (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 20:80

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs snith nhotprasa (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.07
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jose Mestanza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Semelagne (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Guillaume Ricros (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 20:80

Kano, Dracai of Aether

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

Aurora, Shooting Star

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

Aurora, Shooting Star

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffrey Donneger (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 20:80

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Crame (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bidinger Mikael (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Charles Duruy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.33
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adrien Kurek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julien Vu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Louis Duruy (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alessio Boiardi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maxence Palkowski (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Katsu, the Wanderer

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Guillaume Pastor (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Maxence Palkowski

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yoann MARIE-ROSE (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jan Ojamaa (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Aurora, Shooting Star

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Sylvain LE ROUX

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

Kano, Dracai of Aether

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leonardo Asciano (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kris Mersol (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.