Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Lyon

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

39 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Connor McGrath

2nd • 12-3-0

80%

Meta

+4.4

Perf

7.0

Surp

6.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Albert Rolland (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Romain TRAVERSAZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs enzo costa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jose Antonio Del Hoyo Cuenda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rob Catton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matt Rogers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (12/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

7.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.03
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.37
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.42
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.99
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Win	✗	0.79	2.09
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Michael Lemerle

9th • 10-2-0

83%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

5.7

Surp

5.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Chițu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cedric SCHAACK (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Nijssen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs snith nhotprasa (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Peter Ward (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Enes Findik (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.10
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.62
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.89
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.73
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

May Made

11th • 9-3-0

83%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

5.7

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sokha BOURNAK (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ross Gauld (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dario Vegh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hulys Zimmermann (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Enes Findik (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Michael Feng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Louis Guillot (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.60
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Sebastiaan Knetsch

37th • 8-4-0

75%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maurice Philip (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs FREDERIC MOUTARDIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vlastimil Martinek Jr. (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robert Szary (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Clément LOUBIERE (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs simon diaz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mario Donoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Samuele Costantini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.08
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.19
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.73
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Claudio Paradiso

38th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Albert GUYO (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Francisc Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Antoine Billy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Felix Krisch (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Henri Schlüter (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Marc Sion (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Clément LOUBIERE (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.07
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.44
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.46
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.87
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.96
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Stefano Meoni

53rd • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Quentin Lapeyre (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bota Claudiu (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vlastimil Martinek Jr. (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs José Guimarães (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Balint Herendi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Finlay Freir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Marc Sion (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.43
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.87
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.95
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Jakub Nowicki

56th • 8-4-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Guillaume Pastor (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxence Gobert (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steve Andrew (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Rosenberger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hulys Zimmermann (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Daniel Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Geoffrey Donneger (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.60
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.97
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Patrick Jud

79th • 6-5-1

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

5.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Mestanza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fabio Albrecht (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Daniel Correas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bota Claudiu (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Antoine Billy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yoann MARIE-ROSE (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.08
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Draw	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dario Vegh

74th • 6-6-0

42%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

6.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre STEINMETZ (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Walter (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vladislav Kirichenko (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Panagiotis Xanthopoulos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tom Simon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.11
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.59
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.68
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Alexandros Argyriou

dropped • 6-5-0

64%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tadhg Treacy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vincent PROUM (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Josep Giné (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs simon diaz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.07
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.19
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.53
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.57
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.66
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.16
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

snith nhotprasa

dropped • 5-5-0

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Gement (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs sylvain verdet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hulys Zimmermann (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Christophe Donnat (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Lemerle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.32
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Bruno Marty

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs François Facchin (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Bousch (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nolan Varone (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs James Rank (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tess van Dartel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jo Yana

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giannis Karyotakis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maximilian Schug (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aurélien Huc (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Romain Werlen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Oliver M (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.46
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Juha-Antti Kurttila

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Saillour (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Loïc Hervé (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Romain Werlen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.50
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kamil Rejman

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ioannis Makrygiannis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sergio Martínez ibañez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robson Dechamps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Oliver M

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Kihl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josef Doležal (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cristian Codes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Javier Querol (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pierre Canali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Steve Andrew

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Crame (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs valentin mackl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Coates (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.63
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Vincent Fasquel

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francisc Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Victor Lima (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Diego Paoletti (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.24
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Yahir Peñarrubia

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexis HAYOIT (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Chirulescu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs P.E. Gallais (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.33
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Corentin Guillemot

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Knýbel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Svetozar Petrushkov (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs sylvain verdet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Lucas Nijssen

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Lemerle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christos Zisimos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Julius Otte (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.60
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Mirko Macchia

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Loreau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan MATEO (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stefan Bernhardt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.81
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Romain Werlen

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Flavien Randoux (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Maxence Gobert (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.61
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sergio Sanz Guerrero

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Freddy Friedrich (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alessio Boiardi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs pierre marcueyz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christos Zisimos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Boulanger (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Angus Sünner (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.36
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Tristan MATEO

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antoine Pignoux (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nikos Louganis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Flavien Randoux (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.30
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Kai Martin

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Mamonas (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Donovan LEBLANC (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Konrad Paziewski (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Svetozar Petrushkov

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Soubrier (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gabriel Gement

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs snith nhotprasa (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Djeffar Mahadali (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marc Sion (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Philippe Milot

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dominik Šupa (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Altair G. Sánchez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Gérôme Francois

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antoine Billy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alban Bonnefoux (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Recif Guardian (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yoann Chaussinand (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alain Dang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Igor Koutzevitch

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Rodrigues (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yoann MARIE-ROSE (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philippe Milot (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Killian Allouard (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.73
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

André Ferreira

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robin Meunier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raphaël Caliendo Spera (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Nolan Varone

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giovanni Korsten (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Meneveau (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bruno Marty (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sokha BOURNAK

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Albert Rolland (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benoît Geay (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julius Otte (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.68
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Martin Knýbel

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danilo Calcagno (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Sebok Gabor

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roissac Sylvain (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Angilbert (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs P.E. Gallais (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tom Jones

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs pierre marcueyz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gergely Kovacs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

alban dufourt

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Freddi Malavasi

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Duruy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.