Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Lyon
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
52nd • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
5.6
Surp
5.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexis VALENTIN (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alexandre STEINMETZ (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
Round 6: Win vs Albert GUYO (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Pietro Giraudo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Daniel Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Samuele Costantini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Claudio Paradiso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Marco Lauria (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 12: Win vs Antoine Billy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
63rd • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
5.8
Surp
4.0
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Loay Achmasiewicz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nico Schleier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Gement (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Win vs Balint Herendi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
Round 7: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Robert Szary (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Peter Markovič (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
Round 10: Win vs Peter Ward (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Claudio Paradiso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-2-1
71%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Gabe Sher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs snith nhotprasa (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dominik Šupa (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Bernardo Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Recif Guardian (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Corentin Guillemot (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Draw |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mathieu Gomez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Hugo Croizet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Stefan Bernhardt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs David Petry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Geoffrey Donneger (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 57:43
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ximun LASTIRI (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joaquim Ballot (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Donovan LEBLANC (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adrien Bersier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alain Dang (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
Round 4: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Claudio Paradiso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alessio Boiardi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rob Catton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 57:43
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cyril LEROUX (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mark Tan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Stefania Patsou (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Maël Cousinier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Daniel Meziani (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-6-0
100%
Meta
-2.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Takis Pavlou (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Konrad Paziewski (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs mickael assemat (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matěj Stejskal (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jose Mestanza (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Guillaume Lamouroux (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Forte Adrien (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
Round 4: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kit Valentine (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.