Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Lyon

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Grégory Lefebvre

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Corentin Ruis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Takis Pavlou (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Arthur Brunoni (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Denis Müller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.08
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Simone Rainaldi

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wessel Groot (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Fourchon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ximun LASTIRI (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Forte Adrien (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.12
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Adrian Quek

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Ward (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Malyk Höfle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Guillaume Lamouroux (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.