FaB-Results
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Roger Bodee
24th • 9-4-0
62%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
6.6
Surp
5.2
Diff
Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kenneth Thomas (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Travis Reeder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs randy lavoie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adam Columbia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Bravo, Showstopper
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Oren Yishai (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Kano, Dracai of Aether
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Isaiah Malana (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51
Dromai, Ash Artist
!!
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
Prism, Awakener of Sol
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
Dash I/O
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Dave Lin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Evan Dyck
dropped • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.9
Diff
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Sieren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Carlos Samaniego (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Evan Herndon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Viserai, Rune Blood
!!
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joshua Rath (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Kassai of the Golden Sand
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
Adam Roark
dropped • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.0
Diff
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
!
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Danton Lima (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ian E Wright (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jason Nakata (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alex Chang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Dromai, Ash Artist
!!
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Darnell Akers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Jon Steelsmith
dropped • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.0
Diff
Kassai of the Golden Sand
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Stephen Henry (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adrian Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Vince Rothman (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Bader (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Carlos Samaniego (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Alex Tyler
dropped • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.3
Diff
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Kano, Dracai of Aether
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Brown (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
Kano, Dracai of Aether
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Antonio Otero (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51
Kano, Dracai of Aether
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Alan Chavarin
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
Bravo, Showstopper
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Donaldson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Hood (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Bravo, Showstopper
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mark Boothroyd (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Chang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Dash I/O
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64
Patrick Steiche
dropped • 2-5-0
14%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Fai, Rising Rebellion
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Snyder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Arakni, Huntsman
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mike Morelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Luca Garcia (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Blake Meier (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Anastasia Benner
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
Uzuri, Switchblade
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs James Chang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Matthew Jamieson
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
Uzuri, Switchblade
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tanner Young (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
!
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Miles Slack (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
!
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Trinh (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs yuta maruo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jake Wenger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Kenny Cole
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dietrich Goodwin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Garrett Johnson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
Kassai of the Golden Sand
!
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chris Mintz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Catherine Powell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Cheaman Buckwalter
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
Dromai, Ash Artist
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Katsu, the Wanderer
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
!
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Fai, Rising Rebellion
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Murphy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61
Elly Bird
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.7
Diff
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Max Botham (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Bravo, Showstopper
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs TORRIN RODRIGUEZ (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Andy Portillo
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
!!
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Carson Elliott
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Bravo, Showstopper
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Reynold Lam (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Uzuri, Switchblade
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Marengo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.