Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Los Angeles

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

32 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Arthur Mills

18th • 10-3-0

69%

Meta

+3.9

Perf

6.2

Surp

5.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Moss (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jayson Jacks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Chua (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Man Hiem Cheung (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Jackson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Miles Slack (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tiger Mckenzie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.09
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.44
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.70
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christopher Dietz

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dietrich Goodwin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wesley Cole (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.85
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christopher Menjivar

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chase Musselman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs SEAN STELL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs James Mangles (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Franche Tan

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Raj Giri (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Little (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vivek Elashoff (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joe Santianna (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Dawson Gilbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Jonathan (chugs) Moore

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Bannigan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sjohn Chambers (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Kohls (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anh Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Philippe Thai (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Jorge Ecute

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony DT Zichella (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gregory Cole (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bryan Hefner (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sjohn Chambers (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hayden Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.62
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.00
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Nick Gabler

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Jackson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Shawn Adams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs James Mangles (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.20
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Juan Chacon

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs jaime bessett (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shaun Simmons-Nash (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hatta Rin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Matt MacLeod (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Kamil Rejman

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hatta Rin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Joey Boily (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Scott Weaville

dropped • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eli Teed (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Elliott Sisterson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kent Summerour (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Edward Knight (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.48
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Angel Fernandez

dropped • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Biggs (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Levi Rauch (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrea Biaggi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Travis Watkins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jake Warburton

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nik Katebian (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sylvain Poirree (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Justice Yang

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Schalich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phillip martinez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Legg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nik Katebian (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Nguyen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Vivek Elashoff (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.30
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

John Zapata

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs CLARK Moore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Sean Brame

dropped • 2-4-1

43%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Biggs (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Flores (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Jimmy Bui (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle Schalich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Raj Giri (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.19
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

David Joachim

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Moss (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Davila (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Raj Giri (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.75
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

JP Coleman

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Antonio Barrera (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Travis Woodward (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Travis Watkins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Hood (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Jose Alves

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeff Rietman (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dawson Gilbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul A Wright (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Max Botham (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Beck (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Keating

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Neil Bautista

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Travis Woodward (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Keating (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Brame (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Raj Giri (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Roark (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.96
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

David Ballesteros

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gregory Cole (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Pennington (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Campbell (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shereena Decano (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.05
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Ryan Miller

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antonio Barrera (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chad Bortz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Vivek Elashoff

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Benton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Recinos III (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Scott Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justice Yang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brad Betschart

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Martin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Desautels (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Evan Silverman

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hugh Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Ernesto Rodriguez

dropped • 1-3-1

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Hamilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Tyler Dschaak (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Ricca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Draw	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Chesley Hicks

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Blake Alvey (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Malave (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Melissa Rockwell

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Roper (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian E Wright (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Hollis Eacho

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jayson Galindo (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Norah Porter

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryan Hefner (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Paul Selinske

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Lindsey Thiele

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeff Okrasinski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.