Vynnset, Iron Maiden
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-5-0
88%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rolando Matta Jr (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alec Myers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Johnny Wedzicha (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Jackson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Smith (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Marengo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tristan Mitchell (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ernesto Rodriguez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-1
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Bathgate (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Nova Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sylvain Poirree (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Draw |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kenny Cole (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dawson Gilbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luke Putz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Phillip Jeon (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lance Buan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paulo Fernandes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Korner (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jason Dhami (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.