Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Los Angeles

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

85 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eric Lerer

3rd • 12-3-0

87%

Meta

+4.5

Perf

6.5

Surp

5.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donovan Kormish (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Hamilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Biggs (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Brown (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Baker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bryan Hefner (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Nova Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

87% (13/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.06
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R3	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.28
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.43
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.78
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.79
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.77
R15	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Yifei Wang

5th • 10-4-0

86%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

6.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Boothroyd (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zach Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Bridges (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Bryan De La Torre (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matt Kohls (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.04
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.21
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.38
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.50
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.84
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.84
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R14	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Dave Lin

10th • 10-3-0

54%

Meta

+4.2

Perf

6.5

Surp

5.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Felipe Costa Batista (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Martin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hugh Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Luke Manship (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Noah Clark (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Aria How (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Anthony DT Zichella (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Roger Bodee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.10
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.24
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.24
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.45
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.53
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.74
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R13	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.34

Shawn Dhaliwal

29th • 9-4-0

69%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

6.9

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jose Alves (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Luke Putz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.08
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.21
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.24
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.35
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.63
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.76
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R12	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Wesley Dong

33rd • 9-4-0

69%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Brown (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Reynold Lam (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mikko Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Koppean (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rob Catton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Oh Oh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.08
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.16
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.24
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.17
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.62
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R10	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Anthony DT Zichella

45th • 8-5-0

54%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

6.4

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jorge Ecute (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kal Dschaak (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dalton Cameron (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joey Boily (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Troy Wilson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rogue Theory (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Menjivar (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Bryan De La Torre (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dave Lin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Miles Slack (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.18
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.52
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.17
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.76
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.71
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Bennett Robinson

50th • 8-5-0

85%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Burger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yazan Masad (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tanis Curran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

15:85

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hatta Rin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Philippe Thai (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Griesser (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.08
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.16
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.33
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.72
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.81
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.99
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Derek Chiu

52nd • 8-5-0

69%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darnell Akers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elly Bird (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Isaiah Malana (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

15:85

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Bryce Platz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.08
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.31
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.48
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.97
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Christopher Higashi

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs roque flores (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Valdez (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Neet (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Vance Jones (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.67
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Ian Smith

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyson Au (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Abanto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Blum (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Max Botham (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.39
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Koosha Jahani

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs randy lavoie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Justin Evans (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Masaru Yoshizawa

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Petry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Loh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.39
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.58
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.82

Matthew Greenleaf

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Henry (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hatta Rin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Chenjun Liu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Talon Stradley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Aaron Murphy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.24
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

Max Botham

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elly Bird (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kieth Seith (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frank Boothroyd (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tristan Mitchell (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jose Alves (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Smith (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Henry Gomez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.72
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.18
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nicholas Jackson

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Lee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mike Williams (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Flores (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joey Boily (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.14
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.77
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.24
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Peter Beck

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Troy Wilson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlo Cuenca (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clover Ausdemore (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andy Julkowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jose Alves (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Oren Yishai (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Thor Hoffman

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Stidger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Kwasneski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs brynn nieboer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Hemmert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs michael mills (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.83
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Timothy Scroggs

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eugene Galipchak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Donaldson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Broussard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tiger Mckenzie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.50
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

nathan lapham

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Kim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Pennington (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Donaldson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Troy Wilson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

James Mangles

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Loh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Legg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs CYK Lionel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Menjivar (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dale Mushinski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jason Chua

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Thorington (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryce Platz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Wilson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Hugh Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luke Putz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joshua Frailey

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Travis Reeder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Carlo Cuenca (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Miranda (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs John Tucker (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Chenjun Liu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.58
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.24
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.82

Justin Bathgate

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Robles (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Izumi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Broussard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tiger Mckenzie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Mackney (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Hamilton (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.58
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.84
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Naib Mobassir

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Grant Strom (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Tucker (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.97
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dale Mushinski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joe DeCaussin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.37
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Sjohn Chambers

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Bergmann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jorge Ecute (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Vince Rothman (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.49
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Suryan Bhatia

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bruno Carvalho (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Jamieson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Legesse (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Edward Knight (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Thaminda Edirisooriya

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johnny Wedzicha (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mike Morelli (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Abigail Welday (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joe DeCaussin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Blake Meier (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Flores (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Carlos Romero (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

randy lavoie

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samed Demir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shawn Reed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Dhami (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Samed Demir

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesus Cuevas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs randy lavoie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jake Wenger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Towne (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Greg Sutcliffe (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Pennington (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Travis Watkins

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Lockwood (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Britney Thomas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Oshiro (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs JP Coleman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Angel Fernandez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Brandon Flores

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gregory Cole (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Brame (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Josep Giné (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Jackson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rob Catton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joe DeCaussin

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Samaniego (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Shelly (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rob Catton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.31
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Brishen Jaimes

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hollis Eacho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Hamilton (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Murphy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Shreve

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs peng seng (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Paul A Wright (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Lee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.11
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Christopher Tagg

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Angel Benitez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sadat Minick (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steven Leyva (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs CODY READY (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.16
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.96
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Shawn Adams

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Andrews (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Gomez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Travis Watkins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sylvain Poirree (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Blum (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Dietrich Goodwin

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Wyce (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kenny Cole (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anh Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Romero (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Antonio Barrera (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.38
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

roque flores

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Reed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Miranda (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Vince Rothman (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.32
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Adam Columbia

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vince Rothman (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Mackney (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chard Tan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.77
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Elliott Sisterson

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gary Mack (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Yanke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rob Linn (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Tagg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Evan Herndon

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikko Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.25
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Florin-Cristian Loghin

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Cooper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jon Cardenas (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kyle Schalich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.13
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.66
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Jackson Klingbeil

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Mintz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Hamilton (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Cooperider (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Guilherme Perego (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Evans (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.26
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.03
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

James Chang

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Hamilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anastasia Benner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.13
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jesse Hudak

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Shelly (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Malana (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Dinh (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Douglas Shima (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Josep Giné

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bea Budnik (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Manship (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Flores (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tanis Curran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

MOISES LOPEZ

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elliot Sloane (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Yanke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Knight (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dawson Gilbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.22
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Stephen Henry

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jon Steelsmith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Dinh (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Koppean (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.66
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.88
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Sylvain Poirree

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Holden (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andy Julkowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jake Warburton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.67
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Andy Julkowski

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sylvain Poirree (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs TORRIN RODRIGUEZ (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gregory Cole (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Beck (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Talon Stradley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Chase Reiser

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CODY READY (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Britney Thomas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs michael mills (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chenjun Liu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sean Bergmann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

John Nguyen

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edward Knight (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Anthony (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justice Yang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Shaun Simmons-Nash

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dexter Canright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antony Benedetti (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Shawn Reed

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aria How (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Daryl Bon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs roque flores (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Derek Anderson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs randy lavoie (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.88
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tony Mapelli

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Curtis Roth (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anastasia Benner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs yuta maruo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matt Kohls (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Wyatt Schmitt

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Maldonado (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Lin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle Foiles (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Alexandre Lefebvre

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Jacobsen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Abanto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Josep Giné (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anh Tran

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jayson Jacks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Wilson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dietrich Goodwin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Anthony Cicchinelli

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.81
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chard Tan

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Phi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Columbia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dennis Yip

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kieth Seith (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Chang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Romero (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Angel Benitez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.62
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Eric Wilson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Gutierrez (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anh Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Chua (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Miranda (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Jacobsen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Keating (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.62
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

John Cooper

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Lockwood (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kevin Lindenmayer

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alec Myers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Trepany (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Chang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.49
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.86
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nick Yaksich

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs jaime bessett (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Romero (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Adam Little

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler McIntyre (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Austin Kim

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valerio Guercio (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Dylan Sieren

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Scott Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Davenport (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Hood (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jason Nakata

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Roark (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Roper (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mike Sullivan (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.62
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Jayson Jacks

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anh Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taran Alvey (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.42
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Shimon Bandiel

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Todd Kotow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Nakata (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chard Tan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jake Wenger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Long Dao

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Terrazas-Haywod (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Lin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.01
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Alejandro Gonzalez-Lara

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Malave (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Foiles (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eli Teed (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Chad Bortz

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Chang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Eric Dauernnheim

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mike Sullivan (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Petry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Peter Desautels

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Dschaak (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tristan Mitchell (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Bergmann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Jonny Espejo

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler McIntyre (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jeff Rietman (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Yaksich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Sitrick

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeffrey Lopez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Chambers (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Dexter Canright

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Dash I/O) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shaun Simmons-Nash (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dale Mushinski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Nathan Nichols

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt MacLeod (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs michael mills (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Scott Buljan

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Sieren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vivek Elashoff (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Tommy Buljan

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ynez Nevarez (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Paulo Fernandes

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Martinez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.