Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 8-2-0
90%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
4.7
Surp
3.8
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Julio Heredia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
Round 2: Win vs Diego Ampudia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adrian Contreras (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jesús Mercado (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Adrian Contreras (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
90% (9/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
10th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alvaro Tadeo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Loss vs Luis Canche (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gustavo Zarate (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nestor Mendoza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jesús Mercado (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
11th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Carlos Fuenmayor ()
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesus Roman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oscar Soto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Julio Heredia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Luis Franco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brendan Patrick (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
23rd • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Ige (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Saúl Orozco Albiter (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
26th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Carlo Alcantar (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 6: Win vs Bruno Durand (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Luis Canche (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
35th • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Wilmer Aguilar Ramos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jose de Jesus Romero Valdez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mariano Marquéz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Javier Moreno Varela (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Luis Eduardo Estrada (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35
Round 7: Win vs Diego Ampudia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wilmer Aguilar Ramos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Victor Valenzuela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Oscar Soto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.