Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025 - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tulio Marquez

25th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Carlos Uribe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Saúl Orozco Albiter (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.09
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	2.26

Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas

37th • 2-4-1

43%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Valenzuela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nissim hernandez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stefano Maximiliano Cortés Gutiérrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Eduardo Castillo Trujillo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Carlo Alcantar (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mariano Marquéz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.29
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Draw	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Jose Luis Zuñiga Rodríguez

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alastor Guzman ()

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Valenzuela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brendan Patrick (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.07
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Julio Heredia

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fernando Alcantara Sarmiento (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Raul Rivero (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Braulio Mora (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.40
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.