Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Battle Hardened

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tulio Marquez

25th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Carlos Uribe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Saúl Orozco Albiter (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.76	2.04

Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas

37th • 2-4-1

43%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Valenzuela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nissim hernandez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stefano Maximiliano Cortés Gutiérrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Eduardo Castillo Trujillo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Carlo Alcantar (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mariano Marquéz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.16
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Draw	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jose Luis Zuñiga Rodríguez

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alastor Guzman ()

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Valenzuela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brendan Patrick (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.96
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Julio Heredia

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fernando Alcantara Sarmiento (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Raul Rivero (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Braulio Mora (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.41
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.