Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
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dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Soto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Round 4: Loss vs Cristian Ramos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.