Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 4-2-1
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs nissim hernandez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Braulio Mora (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luis Eduardo Estrada (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.