Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025 - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luis Manuel García Luna Perez

20th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs nissim hernandez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Javier Moreno Varela (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Roberto Busnelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.10
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Luis Franco

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adrian Contreras (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jose de Jesus Romero Valdez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eduardo Castillo Trujillo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Braulio Mora (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Emmanuel Rojas (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alvaro Tadeo

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Roberto Busnelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Ige (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jose de Jesus Romero Valdez

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Franco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alejandro Cardenas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Fuenmayor ()

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Wilmer Aguilar Ramos

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alejandro Cardenas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.