Puffin, Hightail at Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Lewis

9th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Eduardo Estrada (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alvaro Tadeo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carlos Perilla (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Jesús Mercado

18th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marco Vinicio Nuñez Balderas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Diego de Alba Montes (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fernando Alcantara Sarmiento (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eli Campos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.31
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.06
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.02
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena

32nd • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alejandro Cardenas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emmanuel Rojas (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Ige (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luis Eduardo Estrada (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Diego Ampudia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.85
R6	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.26
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.