Puffin, Hightail at Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Lewis

9th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Eduardo Estrada (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alvaro Tadeo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carlos Perilla (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.62
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.11
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Jesús Mercado

18th • 4-3-0

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marco Vinicio Nuñez Balderas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Diego de Alba Montes (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fernando Alcantara Sarmiento (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eli Campos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.31
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.03
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.24
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena

32nd • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alejandro Cardenas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emmanuel Rojas (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Ige (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luis Eduardo Estrada (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Diego Ampudia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.04
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.