Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025 - Cindra, Dracai of Retribution (CC)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Manuel Curiel

3rd • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wilmer Aguilar Ramos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesús Mercado (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emmanuel Rojas (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.29
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.45
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.98
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.21
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Vigneo Guzman

19th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raul Rivero (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Franco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gustavo Zarate (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marco Vinicio Nuñez Balderas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Fernando Valenzuela

21st • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Victor Valenzuela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eli Campos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mariano Marquéz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Luis Canche (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.83
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.11
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Andrew Ige

31st • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nestor Mendoza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liz Suastes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brendan Patrick (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alvaro Tadeo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Carlos Perilla (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Mariano Marquéz

34th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brendan Patrick (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bruno Durand (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Saúl Orozco Albiter (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alejandro Cardenas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Roberto Busnelli

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesus Roman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Contreras (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alvaro Tadeo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Liz Suastes

dropped • 1-3-1

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Ige (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Ricardo Isac Sánchez Samaniego (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Carlos Vazquez

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.86
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Ivan Saenz

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diego Ampudia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.