Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Osmar Bravo

16th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nestor Mendoza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eli Campos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.19
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.53
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Diego Ampudia

36th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ivan Saenz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fernando Alcantara Sarmiento (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Vinicio Nuñez Balderas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eduardo Castillo Trujillo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alejandro Cardenas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.65
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Raul Rivero

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julio Heredia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Javier Moreno Varela (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Durand (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cristian Ramos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.89
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.89
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.