Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025 - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo

29th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose de jesus Bon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Canche (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Diego Ampudia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cristian Ramos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.22
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.46
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Javier Moreno Varela

38th • 2-4-1

71%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jose de jesus Bon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raul Rivero (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alejandro Cardenas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None ()

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Victor Valenzuela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Draw	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stefano Maximiliano Cortés Gutiérrez

dropped • 0-3-1

50%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jose Carlos Uribe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.