Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo

29th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose de jesus Bon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Canche (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Diego Ampudia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cristian Ramos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.46
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Javier Moreno Varela

38th • 2-4-1

86%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jose de jesus Bon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raul Rivero (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alejandro Cardenas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None ()

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Victor Valenzuela (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stefano Maximiliano Cortés Gutiérrez

dropped • 0-3-1

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jose Carlos Uribe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Gomez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.