Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
33rd • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jose Luis Zuñiga Rodríguez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marco Vinicio Nuñez Balderas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Javier Moreno Varela (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.