Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025 - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carlo Alcantar

39th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eli Campos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gustavo Zarate (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bruno Durand (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Itzel Natali Miranda Rosas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eduardo Castillo Trujillo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alvaro Tadeo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Jose de jesus Bon

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Javier Moreno Varela (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Draw	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Ricardo Isac Sánchez Samaniego

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Eduardo Estrada (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Liz Suastes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Draw	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.