Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at Battle Hardened: Guadalajara 2025
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.8
Surp
5.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bruno Durand (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
Round 4: Win vs nissim hernandez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 8:92, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Raul Rivero (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 10% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.