Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pudding Tam

1st • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

6.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chong Chi fu (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs erwin leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Allen Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Allen Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.10
R14	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.99
R15	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.31

Nova Chan

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Colin Li (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Bun Ar (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.21
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.42
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.77
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.71
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Ray lam

17th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clement Cheng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Roscar Tang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.41
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Kyrios Mak

22nd • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

4.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Chu (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hochun Lai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Anthony Liu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.73
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.69	3.42

Jacky Ho

26th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs erwin leung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chung Ho Kong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Colin Li (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.57
R12	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Chung Ho Kong

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Lau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacky Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Clong H

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hung Aaa_Man (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.20

Rocko Yan

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs WAI KIT LO (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Wu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

AZCEX DECADE

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gordon Chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Li (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Kelvin Law

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ka chun chan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Lau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Chan Lion

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

sor sum

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gordon Chan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.