Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 7-2-0
67%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.0
Surp
5.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hochun Lai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
Round 10: Win vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 11: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 68:32
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 70% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R15 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
25th • 4-1-1
83%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
3.0
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chi Hoi Tsoi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Draw |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
13th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Clong H (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Chu (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Win |
27th • 1-4-1
33%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Kelvin Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Round 3: Loss vs ka chun chan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs See Atlantis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Draw |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eric Chu (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle WKL (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.