FaB-Results

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bun Ar
2nd • 7-2-0
67%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.2
Surp
6.2
Diff
Deck
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hochun Lai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
!!
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
!
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Arakni, Marionette
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Elvis Ho
25th • 4-1-1
83%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
2.7
Diff
Deck
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chi Hoi Tsoi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
Dorinthea Ironsong
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 72:28
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Wayne Tsui (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
Prism, Awakener of Sol
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38
Hung Aaa_Man
13th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
Deck
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Clong H (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
!
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Chu (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 59:41
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Law Wen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Dorinthea Ironsong
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 72:28
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31
WAI KIT LO
27th • 1-4-1
33%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
Deck
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Kelvin Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
!
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs ka chun chan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alex Lo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs See Atlantis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Michael Wu
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.3
Diff
Deck
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eric Chu (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 59:41
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
!
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Vincent Chau
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
Deck
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
!
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lee Ka Yu (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
!
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Man Ho Tang (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
!
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle WKL (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.