Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kelvin Ng

15th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roscar Tang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kelvin Law (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hui Ryan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs See Atlantis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.80
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.65
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Kaiser Wong

18th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kelvin Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elvis Ho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rocko Yan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs WAI KIT LO (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.42
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Clement Cheng

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ray lam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pang Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.