National Championship 2025 - Hong Kong Region - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Law Wen

9th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chan Lion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hung Aaa_Man (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ray lam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.21
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.91
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.26
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

See Atlantis

23rd • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ken Wu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 85:15

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs WAI KIT LO (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	1.01
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	1.09

Chun sir

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rudy Ar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs BILLY CHAN (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.40

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.