Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Law Wen

9th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chan Lion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hung Aaa_Man (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ray lam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.62
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.68
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.30
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

See Atlantis

23rd • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

95:5

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ken Wu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 96:4

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Shum (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Dennis Yip (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs WAI KIT LO (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	95%	Win	✓	0.04	0.02
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.82
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.82

Chun sir

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rudy Ar (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wilson Cheung (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

95:5

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs BILLY CHAN (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 96:4

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	95%	Win	✓	0.04	0.05

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.