Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sunny Yu

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ricky leung (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jammy Cheng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

BILLY CHAN

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chun On Anson Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 7:93

5:95

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chun sir (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-

Ken Wu

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs PH Chung (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs See Atlantis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.